Another state highway project and another pretty animation, this time it is the turn of Puhoi to Warkworth.
Some of the earthworks in this project are going to be absolutely massive although in this video doesn’t really show them as well as the previous video due to it being zoomed out a bit more. Also I find it interesting how the NZTA is very reluctant to say anything about what the time savings of this road actually are, for pretty much every other project they tout how much faster it will make journeys e.g. they say Waterview will take 15 minutes off the journey from the Airport to the CBD. I suspect this is because the time savings aren’t actually that great. It’s also interesting how they show the the existing road all the way to Whangarei, I wonder if this is their attempt to tie Northland into a project that exists solely with the borders of the Auckland Region or if they are indicating that they want to eventually extend the motorway all of the way to Whangarei?
Here is a similar video they releases last year when the indicative route was announced, you can see a bit more clearly some of the huge earthworks and viaducts that are being planned.
The NZTA has announced its preferred route to build a motorway from Puhoi to Warkworth which is part of the Puhoi to Wellsford Road of National significance. The route makes a few changes to what was announced about a year ago and said to be due to them having refined the engineering and environmental issues along feedback from locals from consultation. Hidden in the information is news that they plan to start building the motorway in 2014 with a completion date for this section of 2019. Reading through the announcement and various bits of information it raised a lot of questions but first, here is the new alignment aldong with the key changes:
We have already seen that the previous alignment would require some absolutely massive earth works along with multiple viaducts and I don’t think that this has changed much. The first question I have comes from the yellow box at the bottom of the image where they quote that Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga generate 36% of the countries GDP. The problem with that is Auckland alone currently generates 37% of the countries GDP so getting basic facts like that wrong is not a good start. Here is the key part of the media release:
As the main road link for the freight industry, the new route will better connect Northland to the markets of Auckland and the central North Island to stimulate economic growth in Northland and the Upper North Island.
NZTA State Highways Manager for Auckland and Northland, Tommy Parker,says the agency’s traffic modelling shows that the average number of vehicles travelling between Puhoi and Warkworth each day is expected to increase from an average of 19,700 in 2012 to Puhoi and Warkworth to 31,300 per day in 2026.
“Drivers will make significant time savings on an Auckland-Whangarei journey in 2026 when the Puhoi to Warkworth section of the RoNS is operating, and these time savings are expected to be greater for heavy vehicles carrying freight.
“A divided motorway with a central median barrier will also greatly improve safety, eliminating the kind of head-on collisions which have claimed four lives on this stretch of highway since 2006.”
It seems that with this project you really need to read between the lines because what they aren’t saying is often just as important as what they do say. They claim that 31k vehicles will use the route by 2026 but the key thing here is that it is across both routes, not just the motorway. I also wonder if that increase in vehicles is based on the same growth projections used in other projects and still get used despite traffic volumes being static or even reducing over the last 7 years.
They claim that there will be significant time savings for vehicles but the key thing here is that the benefit is only for drivers coming from further north, that is because the only connection to Warkworth will be on the northern side of town. That time saving benefit was estimated in the past to only be about 5 minutes and those that live in the town will have to drive North to get to the motorway before heading South again which means for many that there will be little to no time saving benefits over what they have now.
There are quite a few other things that could have a big impact on this road. The NZTA have said that they haven’t made a decision yet on whether it should be tolled. Their experience with the existing motorway from Orewa to Puhoi is that even though that piece of road has greater time savings than this new section is expected to deliver, about 30% of traffic still uses the old free route. Using that ratio as an example it would mean that we would still see about 10,000 vehicles per day using the existing route and the motorway would carry about the same amount of traffic as the existing road does today. I believe that would mean it is carrying less traffic than any other motorway in Auckland and less than most arterials.
They have also said that at this stage they won’t be building an interchange at Puhoi which would have interesting outcomes.
The residents on Puhoi and Mahurangi West would no longer have direct access to the motorway. They would instead be forced to use the free road which takes longer and is more dangerous. I wonder if that has been taken into account in the BCR.
As there is a big impact on vehicle numbers if the road is tolled, no interchange at Puhoi means that the NZTA either have to toll the whole motorway from Orewa to Warkworth or remove the existing toll. If they take the latter option they should include the remaining debt that the toll is currently paying into account as that would still need to be paid and so it should be added to the costs for the project.
The NZTA is going to get this consented via a board of inquiry like they did with Waterview, and you can be sure that the locals of Puhoi and Mahurangi West will want ramps built. Given the mitigation that was required for that Waterview with things like vent stack locations, I suspect the locals will have a good chance of winning but that raises another question. Part of me thinks that the reason for not including ramps at that location is that the NZTA know their time savings estimates are bogus so are going to try and force as many people as possible to use the motorway as that would make the old route much longer once again.
So what about the financial and economic aspects of the project, this is what the NZTA has to say:
Estimated costs for the Puhoi-Wellsford project are $760m for Puhoi-Warkworth and in the order of $1b for the Warkworth-Wellsford section
The Puhoi-Warkworth section has a BCR of 1.5 and the overall Puhoi-Wellsford project has a BCR of 1.0
From memory $760m is a little cheaper than when the route was announced last year but still bloody expensive for how many people will use it daily. The total cost of the project has increased though from $1.65b to 1.76B. The more interesting thing is the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), it isn’t clear if this includes things like wider economic benefits or what discount rates have been used, one thing we can be sure of is that they will be the best case scenario. Taking these numbers at face value they suggest the section to Warkworth is marginally ok but that the section from Warkworth to Wellsford has a BCR of only 0.6. This once again highlights one of the biggest problems with the RoNS, to get some of the bad and uneconomic parts built, they are lumping them in with other projects to bring their scores up. The NZTA hasn’t actually released that much information so I think an OIA request will probably be in order to get a copy of the latest business case.
Other than the costs, there also has been no new information the section from Warkworth to Wellsford. The indications are that they still can’t find a workable route through what is one of the most geologically unstable regions in the country. Perhaps the people working on it also know how stupid the project is and are trying to delay it as much as possible because if spending $760m on a road that currently carries only ~20,000 vehicles per day is bad, spending $1b on a road that carries less than 9,000 vehicles per day is just madness.
A few days ago there was an interesting piece on Radio NZ’s “Morning Report” programme, which highlighted the funding shortfall in the transport budget over the next decade – largely arising from the proposed $10 billion spend-up on the Roads of National Significance. The shortfall, which could be up to $2.5 billion over that timeframe, may need to come out of other projects being deferred or not happening at all.
So nothing particularly new here. Greens and Labour transport spokespeople then raised some fairly legitimate concerns – is this a good use of a huge chunk of the transport budget? Are we putting all our eggs in one basket? Do the projects stack up? Brownlee’s response to this (from about 1.30 onwards) is just bizarre. He says:
I find them [Phil Twyford's comments] most disturbing because they’re very light on factual information. But I’m not even sure I know what the Greens are on about. If people want to go back to an age where we have dirt roads and the horse and cart and we want to persist with the idea that if you take a square wheel and you run it fast enough it will get you there, then you follow their policy.
Ummmm… what?
I never thought I’d say this, but I might miss having Steven Joyce as transport minister – at least he had a brain.
The NZTA have released a new video about the Waterview Connection (they actually released it about a month ago but I have only just seen it now). It is definitely a very pretty video but I get the feeling from the ending that it is partly to help push their case for moving the vent stack from the one mandated by the Board of Inquiry. This is something they were pushing back in Feb but I thought they had now dropped the issue.
Of course one does have to ask just how much was spent on this video, I bet it wasn’t cheap.
It has been really refreshing to see transport discussed so much in parliament this week – with the results of the exchanges spilling into the media, as evidenced by the interviews on Breakfast TV a couple of days back.
What seems to have really kicked this off are numbers coming out of the Ministry of Transport, and in a series of answers to written questions, highlighting the ever-increasing dominance of our transport budget by projects that have very low cost-benefit ratios. This was first highlighted in the Ministry of Transport’s briefing to the incoming minister – which included this graph: A series of written questions from Phil Twyford to Gerry Brownlee has dug up some further detail on the numbers that sit behind the graph above (at least for the last couple of years) and also updated it with 2010/2011 data. I’ve put together the answers to a series of written questions into the table below – first by dollar amount and then by percentage: Finally, a couple of questions asked by Mr Twyford look at the proportion of the state highway spend on projects with low cost-benefit ratios that are related to Roads of National Significance projects. The answers highlight that in 2009/2010, $527 million of the $587 million spent on projects with low cost-benefit ratios related to RoNS project (just under 90%). In 2010/2011, $468 million of the $583 million spent on projects with low BCRs related to RoNS projects (just over 80%).
Now let’s put them all together into a graph showing what’s happened since 2005/2006 – effectively adding the 2010/2011 data to the earlier graph in this post:
Geez what happened from 2008/2009 onwards that triggered such a dramatic lowering in the cost-effectiveness of our state highway spending? Oh that’s right, the current government came to power and introduced the RoNS projects.
Gerry’s answers seem to be getting worse and worse. Now he seems to be saying that the party that sold itself as having sensible solutions to solve the economy shouldn’t get hung up on how well a project stacks up economically. He also seems to be saying that it isn’t them that chose the RoNs but that it came from the regions. That is interesting for a few reasons,
It indicates that the government didn’t do anything to check the wish list of the regions was a good idea
The Auckland council has now repeatedly named the CRL as their top transport project but the government ignores it (Gerry even claims that the CRL has an appalling BCR, I guess he only read the deeply flawed hatchet job the MOT did)
Everything else that the government is doing seems to be about taking power away from the regions and centralising it so this would go against that.
And Labours transport spokeperson has got in on the act focusing his efforts on Bill English
Stu has recently been raising the issue that traffic levels have been flat and even decreasing over a number of years and yesterday the Greens spokesperson, Julie Anne Genter raised the issue during question time in parliament. Here is the video of the exchange:
What this really confirms (as if we didn’t know it already) is that the government is really running with a build it and hope strategy which to me definitely isn’t what we should be doing when the costs are in the billions.\
Update
Here are some more videos on the topic from today, the first one is from TVNZ this morning (click on the picture)
And the second one is from Question time in parliament today where the topic was raised again
The NZTA and it’s partners presented an update to the transport committee yesterday on what is currently happening with the Waterview Connection project. Most of the update was pretty straight forward, explaining what the project is, why it is needed and how it will be built. Also the images shown are the same as in this post from December however you can watch the videos of the entire presentation along with the questions and comments about it here: (sorry I can’t embed these ones)
One aspect though has raised the hackles of a number of some councillors and the local board members is something first mentioned late last year which is that the NZTA is considering moving the northern tunnel ventilation stack. The issue is that it was initially intended to be on the Western side of Great North Rd, something the locals weren’t happy about and fought strongly at the board of inquiry (BOI) that was set up for the project. In their ruling the BOI required that the NZTA move the ventilation stack and its associated building to the Eastern side of the road. Since that time the alliance that won the tender has decided to use a tunnel boring machine that can get under Gt North Rd without it needing to be dug up at all so want to be able to move the stack back onto the other side of the road and further north. Whether any change to its location actually happens will have to be seen but one thing is for sure, if it has to go back through the BOI process it could take a long time.
If you are driving around Auckland this weekend it may pay to stay away from SH16, in particular around Lincoln Rd as the NZTA is closing the motorway between Lincoln Rd and Brigham Creek Rd for the next stage of the Lincoln Rd upgrade. They will be demolishing the old bridge that crossed the motorway so they get on with replacing it with a 7 lane monstrosity.
The citybound motorway lanes will be closed between the Brigham Creek roundabout and Lincoln Road off-ramp starting from 10pm on Friday (13 January) until midday on Sunday (15 January). The westbound lanes will also be closed between Te Atatu Road off-ramp and Lincoln Road on-ramp.
“We want to cause as little disruption as possible, but this is a busy section of Auckland’s motorway network and delays and congestion will be unavoidable and our best advice to people is to stay away if possible,” says the NZTA’s acting State Highways Manager for Auckland and Northland, Steve Mutton.
“We’re taking advantage of the good weather and lighter traffic flows to enable us to demolish the old Selwood Bridge piece by piece. To ensure that the crews can do this safely and as quickly as possible, we need to close the motorway.”
The NZTA is recommending that people going west avoid using the Northwestern Motorway altogether from the causeway, as big delays are likely. And for those travelling to east to the city should use the new SH18 Hobsonville Motorway from Westgate, to access the Northern Motorway (SH1) and then travel south over the Auckland Harbour Bridge.
People travelling to events in the city are advised to plan their travel well ahead and allow extra time for their journeys. Detour routes will be in place as well as live traffic updates on radio and extra roadside electronic signs to advise drivers of conditions.
Mr Mutton says he is confident that the motorway lanes will be opened on Sunday, before most people return from their Christmas break to return to work.
“We’re aiming to cause the least amount of disruption to commuters and having our crews work around the clock means we can push on to the next stage of improvements work to complete the new bridge.
“Depending on progress and traffic volumes, we may be in a position to open one single lane westbound between Te Atatu and Lincoln Road during the day on Saturday. However, congestion will still be extremely heavy and our best advice to drivers is to stay away completely.” he says.
Two lanes on the new Selwood Road Bridge opened to traffic in December completing the first half of the bridge as part of the Lincoln Road Interchange improvements project. The bridge will be fully completed in 2013, with seven lanes for traffic and a shared path for walkers and cyclists. Ramp improvements will improve capacity, safety and trip reliability.
The $100M Lincoln Road improvements are part of a suite of projects in the Western Ring Route – Road of National Significance, prioritised by the Government to support growth and economic development in Auckland. The alternative route to SH1 will improve connections between Manukau in the south, Auckland International Airport, Waitakere and the North Shore, and ease congestion on the Auckland Harbour Bridge and the central city.
With special votes seeming likely to result in the Green Party getting one more MP, at the cost of National, and the chances of Auckland Central and/or Waitakere swinging from National to Labour being relatively (but not impossibly) slim, we have a fairly good idea about the shape of the future government.
We have 121 seats – a one seat overhang. This is down from the current parliament, which has 122 seats. This means that 61 seats are necessary for a majority.
National are likely to end up with 59 seats, which leaves them two short of a majority. They will require two “parties” (it feels a bit wrong calling one man bands of Act & United Future parties) out of United Future, Act and the Maori Party for support. This shouldn’t be too difficult. Ironically Labour might be kicking themselves for winning Te Tai Tonga as then there’d be a two seat overhang and National would need all three of these support parties – a much harder ask.
Interestingly, the total number of seats of parties generally supporting the government is down from 69 to 65 (assuming the Maori Party supports them), which gives a little less breathing space than we had previously. If either John Banks or Peter Dunne disagree with National on anything then they could make life pretty difficult – although I think this is unlikely as both will probably become defacto National MPs.
What does this all mean for transport? Well obviously the government is likely to continue with its current policies – as I outlined in this post we are likely to see further investigation of four additional Roads of National Significance. Personally I think these extra roads are more election bribes than anything else as there’s unlikely to be any money in the transport budget for major new projects for at least a decade if the government keeps pushing forward on their current RoNS.
In three years time obviously Victoria Park Tunnel will be fully completed and opened (I wonder if it will still be plagued by horrific congestion, I suspect so), construction on the Waterview Connection will be in full swing and widening of the SH16 causeway should be well under way. I’m not entirely sure what progress is expected to be made on Puhoi-Wellsford by that stage. Assuming that Labour and the Green Party stick to their pledge to scale back this road, a change of government in three years time could well mean that the “holiday highway” never happens, unless so much construction on it has occurred by 2014 that it’s impossible to back out of. I think that’s unlikely.
My pick for the big “elephant in the room” issue for road construction over the next three years will be declining fuel tax receipts putting enormous pressure on NZTA’s ability to actually deliver on the projects the government is promising. Already this year we are seeing NZTA finding it desperately difficult to “pay the bills”, having to put off many of its subsidies that go to Auckland Transport for a month or two here and there, so that they can manage their incredibly tight cashflow. If petrol prices continue to rise between now and 2014 this trend will only increase and we might find it very difficult to fund either the smaller projects (generally those with the best cost-benefit ratios) or we may have to be looking at delaying some of NZTA’s bigger projects. I feel that even increasing NZTA’s ability to borrow (as proposed in the LTMA reforms) will only delay this inevitability.
Of course it’s not all doom and gloom over the next three years. By late 2014 pretty much all our flash new electric trains should be running on the Auckland rail network, and judging by recent trends our rail patronage may be getting close to 15 million trips a year. With an enlarged Greens caucus, and key Labour MPs with a strong interest in Auckland transport issues (Phil Twyford, David Shearer and Jacinda Ardern) being returned to parliament and identified as rising stars, there should be an even better informed political debate over transport in the future. As I have noted in a few recent posts, I am particularly excited that Julie-Anne Genter has made it into parliament – I’m looking forward to parliament’s first questions on parking policy!
Like with many things, the real wildcard might be New Zealand First. Which side of the political divide they fall on transport policy is probably yet to be determined, but they may find it a useful weapon to attack the government on. Although Andrew Williams was clearly the worst mayor North Shore City ever had, the fact that he has been in that position means that he must have a reasonably good awareness of transport matters in the Auckland area – which must be a good thing.
A series of written questions from Phil Twyford to Gerry Brownlee has dug up some further detail on the numbers that sit behind the graph above (at least for the last couple of years) and also updated it with 2010/2011 data. I’ve put together the answers to a series of written questions into the table below – first by dollar amount and then by percentage:
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