The model demonstrates that basic spatial interactions between land uses and transport infrastructure are the most powerful factors that govern the patterns of metropolitan growth.
Thanks to our London branch.
Below is a schematic of current apartment development in a small area of Melbourne just north of the City Centre, next to the Victorian Markets. These are pretty tall; one already under construction is 88 stories.
And here is a blog post from our Melbourne friends OhYesMelbourne on another City Centre adjacent development site; Docklands. And I thought Auckland is experiencing a building boom. Well it is, and this growth is impressive, but of course Auckland is a small city by global standards, and the current boom is well in proportion. Across the world it looks like we are in a phase that is concentrating development pressure in primary cities. So while urbanisation is widespread it seems to be especially concentrated in the cities that dominate their regions, like the Australian State capitals and Auckland in the South Pacific. It’s not just in the new world either; that classic primary city; London, is building up at a new rate too.
Aside from issues of about the balance of this growth from a nationwide perspective or architectural style [blingy is the term that springs to my mind], what is the likely impact of this kind of additional dwelling supply coming onto the market in these cities? Currently Melbourne is getting about 1500 new residents a week [1838 per week last calendar year, in fact]; which at current household sizes means there is fresh demand for about 500-1000 new residences each and every week; pretty hard work to satisfy that demand you’d think?
Well think again; the boffins at the Reserve Bank of Australia are worried about oversupply according to this report from Business Insider. Here’s the recent apartment supply growth:
So while the RBA couches this situation as a warning to financial stability, or at least risk to property developers loosing their shirts in a saturated market, isn’t this exactly the sort of quantity of new supply that overheating urban property markets need, like Auckland?
It seems there is a lesson from the cities across the Tasman that supply/demand equilibrium in cities can be achieved most effectively by building up, although at the risk of supply overshoot. But then isn’t that always the case in any attempt to rebalance a market? So what are the barriers to this sort of solution occurring in Auckland? Is it even possible? One problem is inner city land supply, is there that much available space? Melbourne certainly has a lot of city proximate available land. Auckland is likely to need this sort of growth to also occur in metropolitan centres as well as the Central City simply from a space perspective; given how tightly bound our City centre is. But in that case we will also need to complete the Rapid Transit Network in a timely fashion to make that model function properly. But then we have to do this however we grow; or we are just planning traffic gridlock.
Then there are our planning regulations, especially height restrictions and view shafts, limiting spatial efficiency, and Minimum Parking Regulations adding unnecessary cost to construction [as well as feeding traffic congestion]. I’m sure some will argue that Aucklanders won’t live in apartments, but recent growth in inner city living shows that we have yet to find the limit of those happy to make that choice. It seems likely that out of 1.5+ million there still more willing to live this way, especially as the quality of city amenities and distractions improve [especially public transport, the cycling and pedestrian realm, street quality and waterfront spaces]:
And this is even more likely to be the case if new supply is sufficiently scaled to affect property price growth; then these dwellings will become even more attractive; more affordable as well as proximate. Perhaps, if the RBA’s handwringing is prescient, at the cost of one or two over-ambitious property developers’ businesses…?
Is it happening already? Certainly all the growth in dwelling supply in the last couple of years has been in attached structures: Stand alone houses used to completely dominate Auckland’s housing supply; at three-quarters of the market four years ago to around half now.
The evidence from these nearby cities suggests that ‘up’ may well be a more immediately effective solution to rampant dwelling inflation in Auckland than distant, hard to service, and slow to deliver detached houses out on the periphery. Certainly in as much as it is a supply-side issue.
New Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has wasted no time in clearly positioning himself as pro-city and pro-Transit with the release a series of shots of him using the Montréal Metro on election night.
First Turnbull now Trudeau. Transit is obviously seen by these new leaders as a marker for broader policy; climate change, energy, infrastructure, and, no doubt, their accessibility to the people they represent. Only travelling in big-arsed fossil fuelled BMWs looks decidedly dated in this context.
We look forward to real policy and budgetary change consistent with these images to be clear this isn’t just PR, and we also look forward to our politicians catching up with this trend, and in a real way: Key, Bridges; your move….?
It has been encouraging to witness the change of PM in Australia to the pro-city and Transit using Malcolm Turnbull following significant elections at state level in both Queensland and Victoria going quite dramatically the same way. Now the Liberals have been returned to power in Canada what does this mean for city policy and transportation policy in particular?
It is tempting to feel that there may very well be a significant shift in the zeitgeist in the Anglophone world on these issues, especially including climate change. And I don’t mean on the old blunt left/right polarity, after all Turnbull and Cameron clearly don’t fit when viewed through that lens. Rather I see a different forces at work. The Abbott/Harper backward looking anti-change and fearful world view increasingly seems dated and no longer credible. It looks like no party can convincingly run, red or blue, without real responses to environment, energy, and city infrastructure that aren’t significantly updated from last century’s norms. Welcome to the 21st Century proper, Canada.
Thoughts of Sydney are inseparable from images of its harbour:
It’s naturally beautiful, but also much of what has been added around the harbour increases its appeal, particularly the Opera House and the Bridge:
The bridge is not only beautiful, and massively over-engineered, but also is an impressive multitasker; trains, buses, general traffic, pedestrians, people on bikes. All catered for.
Despite that when looking at the bridge its mostly covered with cars in terms of moving people the general traffic lanes are the least impressive of the three main modes, as shown below in the am peak hour:
It is its multi-modality that makes it truly impressive, some 73% of the people entering Sydney on the Bridge from the Shore at this time are doing so on just one of the train lines and one bus lane; a fraction of the width of the whole structure. So not only does it shame our Harbour bridge aesthetically it completely kills it for efficiency too.
The Bridge has always been impressively multi-modal as the first toll tariff shows, and it carried trains and trams from the start:
In 1992 it was supplemented by a pair of two lane road tunnels that up the cross harbour tally for this mode to match the number coming over by train [bridge plus tunnels = 12 traffic lanes], but that wasn’t done until the population of the city had hit 3.7 million. The high capacity systems on the bridge saved the people of Sydney and Australia from spending huge sums on additional crossings and delayed the date they were deemed necessary by many decades. But anyway, because the additional crossing is just road lanes it only adds around 10% extra capacity to the bridge. To think that the government here and NZTA are seriously proposing to spend multiple billions in building a third Harbour Crossing in Auckland with the population only at 1.5m, but not only that but they are planning to build more capacity for the least efficient mode; more traffic lanes.
The evidence from Sydney shows that what we need to add next are the missing high capacity modes. And that we clearly aren’t using the existing bridge well enough. Our bridge was never designed to carry trains, but it does carry buses, and currently these could be given the opportunity to carry even more people more efficiently. And that very opportunity is just around the corner. In 2017 or maybe even next year the alternative Western Ring Route opens, described by NZTA like this:
Excellent, always great to invest in systems that take unnecessary traffic away. And there is no better way to achieve this than to make the alternatives to driving so much quicker and more reliable with dedicated right-of-ways. Here is the perfect opportunity to achieve that, the opening of the WRR should be paralleled by the addition of bus lanes right across the Bridge in order to lift its overall capacity. And at the same time perhaps truck priority lanes on the sturdier central lanes should also be considered, so the most important roles of highways, moving people and freight efficiently, can be more certainly achieved. Although the need for that depends on exactly how much freight traffic shifts to the new route [as well as the rail line and trans-shipping via Northland’s new cranes: ‘New crane means fewer trucks on the highway’]. Outside of the temporary blip caused by the building of Puhoi to Warkworth [much which will be able to use the WRR] heavy traffic growth on the bridge looks like it is predominantly buses.
Meanwhile our transport agencies should be planning the next new crossing as the missing and much more efficient Rapid Transit route. Cheaper narrower tunnels to finally bring rail to the Shore; twin tracks that have the people moving capacity of 12 motorway lanes. Here: Light Rail or super efficient driverless Light Metro are clearly both great options that should be explored:
But before all of this there are of course those two much more humble modes that can add their invigorating contribution to the utility of the Bridge, walking and cycling, Skypath:
The famous cycle steps on the northern side, there are around 2000 bike trips a day over the bridge [despite the steps]:
And there they were right at the beginning:
The Sydney city centre is fantastic. It’s vibrant, varied, exciting:
And, like all successful cities, full of people. So how do they all get there? Of course some are there already, the City of Sydney has some 200,00 residents, but many journey in each day from the suburbs.
The streets are full of traffic, most are not like the part of Pitt St shown above, where pedestrians have priority:
The Bridge is full of traffic:
And there’s a couple of road only tunnels that were added next to the bridge, the Eastern Distributor, the Anzac Bridge, and many other roads in, so in just one of the AM peak hours 25,000 people drive into, or through, the Centre City on a weekday morning.
But that’s nothing. It’s only 14% of the total, just over twice the number that walk or cycle [source]:
80% arrive on Public Transport. Over 100,000 in that one hour on trains [2011/12]. Because they can.
They would have to, it would be spatially impossible to have such a vibrant city centre if any more than a small number accessed it by private car. There would no space for anything but roads and parking if they tried. No space for the city itself, nor for quiet places away from the hustle:
So while Sydney streets feel very busy with cars, and they certainly have priority to almost all of them, they aren’t actually as central to the the functioning of the city as they appear. There’s just is no way Sydney would be the successful, dynamic, and beautiful city it is without the investment in every other means of getting people to and through the city. Especially high capacity, spatially efficient, underground rail. And nor would the streets be able to function at all if more were forced to drive because of the absence of quality alternatives.
And more is coming too. Next month a second much bigger Light Rail project begins to add to the current one, and a new Metro line with new harbour tunnels is also underway. Driving numbers will likely stay steady into the future, but the city will only grow through the other systems. City streets are vital for delivery and emergency vehicles, but really successful city cities don’t clog them up with private cars to bring in the most essential urban component; people. That’s just not how cities work; even though that may be the impression given by the sight of bumper to bumper traffic on city streets.
And successful cities always appear congested; the footpaths are busy, the stations are crowded, and the traffic is full. Because they are alive and attractive for employment, commerce, entertainment, habitation; in short; urban life. This is the ‘seductive congestion’ of successful urban economies. To focus on reducing traffic congestion without sufficient investment in alternatives for people movement is to misunderstand what a city is and how they work. Sydney is not perfect, but it has a thriving and vibrant, properly urban centre built on properly urban movement infrastructure.
All else there stands on the quality of this investment.
Auckland Star April 1973. Back in the Dark Ages it was considered appropriate to near kill the patient in order to help them. In the 1970s Central government transport planners nearly succeeded in killing the Auckland City Centre through the subtle act of flattening its densest and most proximate dormitory suburbs, then cutting it off any still standing from the city, and turning city streets into motorway off ramps. The charm and glory of these multi-year campaigns are still with us today on the beautiful avenues of Hobson and Nelson Sts, the terrible road pattern and wasted landuse of Union and Cook St, and the blighted devalued areas of K Rd and Newton. And of course the violated and severing gullies themselves. The scale of this ‘surgery’ can be seen in this spread.
The accompanying text is fairly flat and informational.
It seems the desire for a Tabula Rasa, a blank slate, like those postwar planners had in Europe, was so great that we made our own ‘bombsite’.
Happily now we live in more enlightened times and the next city surgery of scale will be much more sophisticated, the City Rail link which as an incision compared to this earlier work is laparoscopic; minimal invasive surgery. No need to maim the patient. Once done no one will even see it, except for that high value resource of people flooding on to city streets not in a car looking for a parking space. And will supply at least as much capacity as the three motorways that meet at this point do today*. So the CRL will double the accessibility to the nation’s most concentrated, biggest, and highest value employment centre, and fastest growing residential area, seamlessly. After the recovery from a few precise cuts, that is.
*Show your work, as Peter always says:
CRL 24 trains per hour each way 750 per train [not crush load; that’s 1000] ~ 36k [crush 48k]
M’ways 12 lanes @2160 [1800 vehicles @1.2 occupants] per lane hour ~ 26k
Of course the buses on the Bridge land some 9000 souls currently too.
Last week I had some work in Sydney and while there I was able to grab a quick look at some aspects of that beautiful city. I want to start with Light Rail because Sydney has one line in operation, and is about to start another much bigger project next month, and one that is strikingly similar to what AT is proposing for Auckland. Similar in that it upgrades at capacity bus routes, links significant residential and commercial areas with the heart of the city from areas not covered by other Rapid Transit, links event locations with a major transport hub, serves some big tertiary institutions, and most importantly that it will be the catalyst for pedestrianising the main city street. For like AT’s Light Rail plan for Queen St Sydney’s also comes with the opening up of George St for pedestrians.
Below are some shots from my quick ride on the somewhat curious Dulwich Hill Line. This is mostly on the route of the old Metropolitan Goods Line, extended past the old docks of Darling Harbour for the tourist trade and terminating at the city end at at the busy Central Station. This is where I got on on a weekday morning, so heading against the flow, you’d think.
It arrives at Central on one-way loop to an elevated stop at the main concourse level of the Victorian train, Sydney’s largest. I assumed this was a built originally for Sydney’s previous trams, and so it was. The earlier system was largely about distributing into the city centre from this terminus station, but as Sydney grew a number of previously terminating lines were extended through to new underground stations in the central city and through to the bridge and across to the North Shore. The logical and very successful upgrade for a terminating city edge station, just like Britomart. In addition to the new Light Rail line they are also now planning the third underground city rail route and second rail harbour crossing: the new Sydney Metro.
The lovely CAF Urbos 3 arrived full and left full. On this evidence it looks like it could do with additional frequency.
It runs on city streets till Darling harbour then uses the impressive cuttings of the old Metropolitan Goods Line. So the route was not selected because it is necessarily the best place to run Light Rail, but because it was available. Very much like Auckland’s passenger rail network, and many new or revived urban rail systems globally [See Manchester Light Rail, and the London Overground for example].
This business of running services where there happens to be an existing route can of course lead to poor results if there isn’t a match with the surrounding land use, and this line at first did not perform as well as hoped. But that all changed with a the extension to a good anchor; Dulwich Hill rail station [opening 2014], and intensification along the route. It is now booming.
John Street Square Station with apartments and very urban open space above.
Heading back, and full again; mid morning on a week day.
Approaching Central on Hay St, crossing Pitt. Smart bit of kit.
There are obvious parallels with Auckland everywhere you look in Sydney, it is after all, pretty much just a bigger better version of a similar urban typology: a new world anglophone Pacific harbour city. It can be argued that Auckland is at a comparable point of development that Sydney was at decades ago, and while that doesn’t for a moment mean we should slavishly follow what happened there, there is much that can be learned from this city. There are a number of interesting projects underway in Sydney now, like the new Metro, which is introducing a new separate and fully automated rail system to complement the existing network. This is certainly an option for Auckland in the future, especially for upgrading Rapid Transit to our North Shore. The same universal urban forces are in play here as there, as can be seen with Light Rail in Sydney now: It is is working well simply because it delivers on the classic necessary conditions for this mode:
The key lesson here is that if any of these conditions are missing steps must be taken to change them, as they did here. And that it is possible to exploit existing rights of way so long as there aren’t other barriers to change, especially to more intense urban land use around stations. Now that in Auckland we are well on the way to fixing the major vehicle and frequency standards on the rail network it is the development around stations that needs work. Especially as we only need to look at the improved performance of stations like Manukau City and Sylvia Park to see, yet again, how closely linked landuse and transport always are.
Looking ahead to the next Light Rail route in Sydney it is pretty certain that this will perform even better because it is designed around need not just route availability. It is hard to disagree with Alan Davies here when he writes:
And Davies, the Melburbanist, is often skeptical about high capex Transit systems, often questioning the value of ones in his own city.
I reckon that this is probably true for the proposed Auckland Light Rail programme too, with two provisos: That land around the stops is zoned for more intense use, and like in Sydney, that the through-routing of the current terminus station is at least funded and underway first. That’s the first fix.
This is a guest post by Warren Sanderson; regular reader, occasional poster, and seasoned traveller.
Hamburg, Bristol, Cardiff & Zurich
In August last year I wrote a guest post for Transport Blog commenting on my wife and my experiences utilising public transport in the cities of Gothenburg, Hanover and Hamburg. I don’t normally like to revisit the destination cities we explore a second time until some years have passed, but we came away from Hamburg thinking we hadn’t done everything we would like to do. It is a good base to make day visits by train to the architecturally appealing and adjacent north German towns of Luneburg, Bremen, Stade, Lubeck, Schwerin and Wismar.
So back to Hamburg we went, to our favourite boutique ‘Henri Hotel’ located in reasonable proximity to the Hamburg Main Railway Station.
The very busy Hamburg Hauptbahnhof can be a little confusing at first but the staff in the Tourist Information, the Regional Trains Office and the DB Bahn ticket office all speak English and I found them most helpful. The DB Bahn people will work out a programme for you, with departure time, train changes and gleis (platform) No’s clearly set out, all of which enabled us to easily visit those towns.
Transport Blog commentators last year had drawn our attention to and recommended visiting ‘Miniatur Wunderland’ which we had not visited previously. It is the largest model railway in the world; incorporating roads, towns, port facilities and so on. Furthermore, it has a model airport, which has aircraft taxiing along the runway and even taking off into the air.
Note as in real life, that on the elevated motorway, the road traffic has ground to a halt, but the trains still get through on their own dedicated tracks.
Miniatur Wunderland is located in Speicherstadt, the old dark brick warehouse district. It is very popular so allow plenty of time if you visit.
Monckebergstrasse is the city’s main shopping street. It is the Oxford Street of Hamburg rather than the Regent or Bond Street – see the picture below which is getting toward the bottom of the street and with the magnificent Rathaus in the background.
Monckebergstrasse is a very wide street with very wide pedestrian areas on each side and a busway lane in each direction in the middle which can also be accessed by taxis and cyclists but apparently not by private cars. The pale yellow cars on the left are taxis at their taxi stand. Pedestrians cross easily and dominate the whole street – not vehicles.
In my post last year, I referred to the booklet I had obtained from the Rathaus which was the approved vision for Hamburg, available in both German and English, entitled ‘Perspectives on Urban Development in Hamburg’. One of the proposals to improve urban quality was to roof over the A7 Motorway cuttings northwards to reconnect severed suburban parts of the city.
This year I noticed a few of these road signs (below) which obviously have relevance to the proposal but because I don’t understand German, I am not sure what the message is, so if there is a German reader out there who can translate the message please comment……….
I have wanted to visit Bristol ever since I first read my father’s copy of Robert Louis Stevenson’s ‘Treasure Island’ with its wonderful original engravings by Wal Paget:
And now I have walked on the same quay as illustrated and found the same Inn where Stevenson found inspiration for the story.
In terms of pedestrian friendliness Bristol did not disappoint. Although quite hilly generally the central old town is quite flat with the many walkers and cyclists able to get about easily away from major arterial roads.
The town is big on Isambard Kingdom Brunel (1806 – 1859), engineer extraordinary and designer of the SS Great Britain and the Clifton Suspension Bridge – both worth visiting. He also designed Temple Meads Station as terminus for the Great Western Railway and many other transport projects in London and elsewhere.
During our week in Bristol we made a day trip to Cardiff. I had not visited Cardiff previously and was interested to find that the whole of the central shopping area was car-free. The streets, though often irregular, were quite wide, and busy. What I thought was important was that two larger modern type shopping malls were within and part of the central shopping area and could draw on the same public transport. Thus they contributed to the central areas vitality.
The obvious comparison is with our Hamilton where the Te Rapa development has resulted in the decline of the former ‘golden mile’ of Victoria Street and to me is an abject lesson in bad town planning.
Zurich was the last city we visited before departing for home – yes, wealthy Zurich where it is so easy to get to the airport. My little timetable shows that there are 158 trips from Zurich HB to Zurich Flughafen each day from 5.02 am to 11.17 pm. Sometimes they will be on a regional train and sometimes on an intercity with the latter continuing on to Winterthur and St Gallen. The journey to the airport takes about 11 minutes.
Zurich still has a tramway system which appeared to enjoy good patronage. I noted a couple of acute angled intersections where the plethora of intersecting rails could have been a bit of a hazard for crossing pedestrians but elsewhere the rails were straight and hazard free. I wouldn’t foresee any problems in this regard if a tram system for Auckland went straight up Queen Street and out the length of Dominion Road. And in Zurich the tram goes the length of the Bahnhofstrasse – one of the most elegant shopping streets in the world.
The whole point in writing this post is to indicate to readers that many cities are moving quite rapidly into the 21st century by turning back the motor vehicle tide to make their cities more people friendly.
For instance, the extent of Cardiff’s pedestrian (and bicycle) emphasis really surprised me.
We only spent a short time in London on this occasion but we were close to Paddington so it was an opportunity to get some idea of the extent of the construction needed to incorporate Crossrail’s station requirements into Paddington Station. It was also announced that Britain’s Chancellor George Osbourne has earmarked more than 100 million pounds in his latest budget to develop the Crossrail 2 proposal for rail between Hertfordshire and Surrey.
All this underground rail activity is happening under the aegis of a Conservative government, so it is hard to understand why our ‘conservative’ government is so opposed in principle to investment in Auckland’s public transit, when usage is increasing so rapidly and all the evidence so clearly supports a move away from spending solely on roading.
To make this work Auckland really needs to have a clear vision as Hamburg does, together with a better say in the best way of using our share of the contribution Auckland makes to national taxation coffers. In transport matters Auckland is being poorly served by national government at present.
I am sure that Hamburg’s vision was not reached without much discussion but I believe the ‘Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg’ may have one advantage over Auckland and that is, that it is a ‘Land’ (i.e. Province – effectively a city state) with maybe less conflict than Auckland has with central government. It seems that our government are pursuing short term political goals which are to the detriment of a rational long-term plan for New Zealand’s largest city.
It is quite evident that New Zealand’s transport policies and spending pattern needs reforming and we can only hope that our current government is big enough to realise this and take appropriate action.