I was having a trawl through recent changes to the London Underground network and noticed one change that had somewhat slipped past my attention – the adjustment of the Circle Line to something that’s now more of a “spiral route”, with the addition of a section from Hammersmith to Paddington. One of the reasons for making such a change could obviously have been the desire to get more services to Paddington, but through reading up on the change it also seems that there was a desire to shift away from the “loop” route patterns of the Circle Line.
The diagram below shows what the “Circle” Line looks like today: The difficulties in operating an orbital/loop route are noted in the Circle Line’s Wikipedia page as a reason for the change:
Orbital routes have an intrinsic problem of timetabling robustness. The trains are constantly in service and so there is little scope for “recovery time” if they are delayed. A single delay can have long-lasting knock-on effects and be much more disruptive than on a non-orbital railway. Recovery time can be created by timetabling longer stops at some stations, but this increases journey times. The current spiral route supposedly removed this problem because of the recovery time at both ends of the route.
That got me thinking about loop routes in general, and particularly Auckland’s best known example of a “loop”, the Link Bus service. I don’t catch Link buses particularly often, but when I do it is fairly plainly obvious that the buses suffer from what’s outlined above, probably to a greater degree than happened on the Circle Line because buses, when operating in mixed traffic, have many more possible causes of delay.
Link buses have an unfortunate tendency to “bunch”, because slow boarding times and unreliable traffic conditions mean that the first bus gets slowed down, while the bus behind it slowly catches up because it doesn’t have to pick up passengers and can therefore travel quite quickly. The longer the route gets, the more bunching you end up with – the end result quite often being three Link buses travelling one after the other, and then a huge gap to the next one.
Now this kind of thing can happen on any bus route, but the difference with non “loop” routes is that you generally have the opportunity to schedule a bit of “buffer” at the start and end of each run, meaning that if a bus is late (or early) there can be a re-timing of the service through the buffer, to give the best chance of starting its next run on time and therefore minimising the potential for bunching and unreliability. With the Link route (or any loop route for that matter), you are likely to have passengers travelling along each part of the Loop, (after all that’s one of their great strengths) which means that every time you have a “delay point” you annoy the heck out of passengers who have to sit at a bus stop for a few minutes twiddling their thumbs for seemingly no reason. I’m sure many readers would have experienced the “Victoria Park wait” on the Link bus over the years – to their great frustration (particularly as the bus drivers never seem to tell you how long it’s going to be).
When you’re trying to make public transport a more attractive option compared to driving, by improving its speed, reliability, convenience and so forth, having bunching buses or hugely long waits for seemingly no reason at Victoria Park don’t really help. I know of a lot of people who’ll avoid the Link bus for these reasons.
Yet I have to balance this against the advantages of “loop” routes. They do offer a connection between such a great number of places – particularly when it comes to the Link bus. Ponsonby to Newmarket: sorted; Parnell to downtown: sorted; Grafton to Ponsonby: sorted. If there are ways to minimise the unreliability, bunching and annoying waits associated with loop routes, they certainly have their many advantages.
So what might be a way forward on the issue of loops? I’m certainly not advocating for getting rid of the Link bus anytime soon – as it has been a significant success, despite its flaws. The high frequency and good connectivity of the Link has clearly struck a chord with the Auckland public right from when it was first introduced in the late 1990s. But how might we reduce the problems associated with the Link? Can we put in better bus priority measures at key points along the Link’s route where it experiences delays? Will faster boarding associated with integrated ticketing help reduce the ‘bunching’ caused by slow boarding? Can bus drivers be made aware of how far behind them, or in front of them, the other Link buses are – and adjust their driving accordingly? Is there a better place for the Link bus to pause than Victoria Park – which seems a very bus part of the route’s operation? It would be interesting to know the answers to these questions.
Furthermore, I also think that we should be wary of introducing further ‘loop’ bus routes – particularly if those routes are going to be longer than the current Link. The longer the route, the more opportunities for delays in mixed traffic, the more opportunity for bunching due to slow boarding and the more difficult it becomes to keep the route ‘on-time’ without having to introduce extraordinarily long waits at various points along the route – guaranteed to annoy the hell out of bus catchers.
So I suppose in summary I think loop routes are best if they’re kept short and if we can get as good bus priority along the route as possible. This minimises the opportunity for unreliable services and the opportunity for bunching. Furthermore, in the case of the Link perhaps we should look at having a number of “waiting points” around the route, in places where patronage is at its lowest, to allow the buses to keep on time without making passengers wait forever – as currently happens on occasion around Victoria Park.
I am curious what others think though – are Loop routes great, or are they a loopy idea (please excuse the terrible pun)?
I don’t often propose new roads on this blog, but there are a couple of possible new bridge connections around Auckland that I think could be very useful additions to our roading network and would potentially be more useful ways of spending our roading budget than on forever widening motorways. The first is the possible Whau River bridge between Te Atatu South and the Rosebank peninsula that I discussed last month. The second possibly useful additional bridge is one between Beach Haven and Greenhithe on Auckland’s North Shore. Effectively, the idea would be to build a bridge somewhere along the blue line’s alignment below, which would mean that vehicles and people (including buses, cars, cyclists and pedestrians) wouldn’t need to take the very long way around any more (indicated in red): The stretch of water the bridge would go over is only around 500 metres wide, and as I don’t think there are particularly many boats which head up this arm of the Waitemata Harbour, the bridge wouldn’t necessarily have to be that high. So I don’t see it as being a massively expensive project.
In terms of its benefits, probably the main one is the reduced travel times (real time savings benefits!) Of not having to go the very long way around via Glenfield. This would save around 15 minutes off each car journey and obviously more for pedestrians (not that there would be any at the moment) and cyclists. It would also bring Greenhithe much more obviously into the North Shore and provide better access for those in Beach Haven to areas like Albany, Westgate and west Auckland in general. The map below shows how long a trip from Beach Haven to Greenhithe currently takes, according to Google Maps (probably on a day without any congestion):You need to drive almost 11 kilometres as a detour just to go in a straight line what is well short of one kilometre. That’s pretty inefficient.
There would also potentially be many public transport benefits arising from such a bridge too. Making the trip shown above on public transport is nigh on impossible:
It seems crazy that it would take so long for a trip that’s barely a kilometre as the crow flies. Now obviously there aren’t too many employment opportunities in either Beach Haven or Greenhithe so getting exactly between the two places isn’t a massive concern. However, there are employment hubs like Albany, Westgate and Henderson that people living in the Beach Haven/Birkdale corner of the North Shore may want to have somewhat reasonable access to – and a bridge like this, with a bus transfer point at Greenhithe onto the 130 route (which would hopefully be straightened up a bit) would provide the kind of connection sorely lacking at the moment. You could end up with something like this: The blue line indicates the current 973/974 buses, which run fairly frequently between Beach Haven and the CBD. The red shows part of the 130 route that potentially offers a great cross-town connection (though I have straightened it up in line with a discussion in this blog post).
There would obviously be some negative effects of the proposal. There would be a street in Beach Haven that’s very quiet at the moment which would become very busy. There may be difficulties in “landing” the bridge at its northern end. There may be environmental effects as this seems like a fairly sensitive corner of the harbour and there would obviously be the cost of the proposal. But at the same time I think there would be quite major benefits: for all type of potential users (drivers, bus riders, cyclists and pedestrians). Perhaps most useful it could link Beach Haven and Greenhithe better with each other and better with Auckland as a whole as they’re two quite strangely isolated parts of the city at the moment.
The B-Line initiative on Dominion Road and Mt Eden Road bus services has apparently been quite successful. For a minimal resource investment (just a few stickers and a marketing campaign) patronage has apparently increased quite markedly on these two bus routes. Hopefully Auckland Transport will share information on the increase shortly so we get an idea about how many more people, on average, are riding these two bus routes now compared to the months before B-Line was launched.
I was initially a bit sceptical of B-Line: not because I didn’t think it was worth doing (in fact quite the opposite), but because the “a bus every 15 minutes between 7am and 7pm Monday to Friday” undersold the actual quality of both the Dominion Road (which has a bus every 5 minutes) and Mt Eden (a bus every 10 minutes) bus services. I do still wonder if they’d advertised it as “a bus at least every 10 minutes” whether we might have seen even bigger patronage increases.
But that’s a bit beside the point. The reason B-Line has been a success is pretty obvious: the services are marketed (and deliver) as being a high quality service run at better than normal frequencies with better than normal buses enjoying better than normal bus priority. In effect, it gets around the general perception of Auckland’s buses as being crap, slow, infrequent and unreliable by distinguishing these routes from the “dirty masses” of other bus routes throughout Auckland. These are sold as superior routes – and people have flocked to them.
Auckland’s not the only city in the world to adopt this kind of approach to improving buses. New York has its “select bus services” and Brisbane has its “BUZ routes” (which I became aware of thanks to a comment from BrisUrbane). The principles of the BUZ routes are somewhat similar to the B-Line: a service quality/frequency guarantee: One thing that I really like about the BUZ is that way that it can be shown on a map – as is outlined above. I’m very hopeful that as Auckland’s B-Line system expands we can create a map showing all the B.Line routes on it – similar to the map above. The other thing that really impresses me about BUZ is that Saturday, Sunday and evenings are included in the “timetable guarantee”. That means pretty much no matter when you want to catch a bus along these routes, at worst you’ll have to wait 15 minutes. By comparison, Auckland’s B.Line only offers its “a bus every 15 minutes” guarantee 7am-7pm, Monday to Friday.
The network features show a focus on integration with the rail network and looking to serve trips made outside the traditional commuting hours. The results of the BUZ initiative are really interesting. Patronage along all the routes has increased dramatically, but perhaps even more fascinating is which particular times of the week that have enjoyed the greatest patronage gains. Weekends and evenings. The results indicate a percentage increase on patronage in the 2003 base year before the initiative was introduced:
The beauty of having massive growth in off-peak patronage is that generally this won’t cost anywhere near as much compared to having to cater for increased peak time patronage. That’s because you already own enough buses and probably employ enough drivers to operate a peak time timetable: the extra operating costs for the off-peak services are minimal and therefore you can effectively get patronage gain for very little cost. By comparison, if peak time patronage had gone up by 250% on the 130 route listed above the transport agency would have needed to buy a massive number of new buses.
Looking at the figures above, the immediate thought that came to my mind was that the Sunday and evening increases probably look so big because they came off a very low base. While this is true to some extent, as the graph below shows along a lot of routes more people now travel on Sundays than previously did on weekdays. That is quite spectacular growth in weekend patronage: It would appear that people are very willing to catch public transport on weekends and in the evening if they are provided with a service that they know is high quality and frequent.
So my challenge to Auckland Transport is to extend the hours where they provide the “B.Line guarantee” beyond just 7am-7pm, Monday to Friday. Make it seven days, make it all evening. Judging by what has happened in Brisbane, the results should make the effort well worth it.
In his Friday column last week, Brian Rudman raises the excellent point – one that I’ve really tried to push – that if we want to improve Auckland’s public transport network quickly and relatively cheaply, we need to focus most of our efforts on improving the bus system. Rudman notes:
My suggestion to Mr Brown is that before ordering new ferries for Takapuna or musing about the wonders of the new electric train services, he should, as his first priority, sort out the workhorses of Auckland public transport, the buses...
…Auckland ratepayers and taxpayers pay $143 million in public transport subsidies a year. Private bus operators get more than half that. If that isn’t the mayor’s business, what is?
In my post on Len Brown’s plans to achieve 150 million PT trips by 2021 I suggested a number of possible ways to improve the bus system. Most of them are pretty cheap – like painting more bus lanes around town and simplifying the bus network: a process which could actually potentially save money for redistribution to where it’s really needed.
Taking a few specific examples it seems clear to me that for almost zero cost we could improve the bus network greatly – simply by improving efficiency. If you think about running a bus system, the most expensive trip to ever operate is going to be that maximum “peak of the peak” service. For the rest of the day you might only run 8 buses along a route to keep it to 20 minute frequencies, but during that peak of the peak you might need to have more than twice that number of buses on the road: not only to provide higher frequencies but also to ensure those frequencies can be met by buses running pretty slow: often stuck in congestion. After all, the longer it takes a bus to complete its run, the more physical buses you need to keep it to a certain frequency.
So if we’re looking to improve the efficiency of the network, what we need to ensure is that we’re making good use of our buses at the peak time, that we’re doing whatever we can to speed buses up and enable high frequencies with a minimum of physical buses and – if possible – we’re trying to encourage a few of our riders that could travel slightly before or after the “peak of the peak” to do so. After all, many buses travelling between 9am and 10am already have spare capacity – and extra passengers on those services is effectively pure profit. This is why I’m an advocate of creating a split in peak and off-peak pricing.
So are we making good efficient use of our buses during the peak time? Are we squeezing the most that we possibly can out of the buses running around town between 7.30am and 8.30am? Are they travelling along routes nice and quickly, so that we can offer high frequencies without requiring a million physical buses for that route? Are we giving them priority over general traffic so that patronage soars because it’s faster for people to bus than drive? Generally, the answer to all these questions (except for certain areas) is no. For particular routes, the answer is massively no.
Let’s take an example of bizarre inefficiency and a big missed opportunity to provide a better service for close to zero cost: the “North Shore to Newmarket” 962 and 966 buses. Here are their timetables:
While it’s not ideal for these services to only operate at peak times, I can understand if there’s no off-peak demand (though how would you ever know without any services) the resources could be better allocated elsewhere. But what I don’t understand at all is why the services only operate in one direction at peak times. Sure, there’s probably more demand for trips from the North Shore to Newmarket in the morning than would be the case in the opposite direction – but I imagine that there might be some demand for people who live in Ponsonby (the bus travels all the way along Ponsonby Road) and work on the North Shore for a service like this. But because all these services are “one way”, instead we have a whole pile of empty “not in service buses” travelling from Newmarket back to the North Shore in the ‘peak of the peak’ to start another run. Why not have those runs as proper routes? It improves connectivity for almost no cost at all.
Another improvement to the bus system that could come at pretty much no cost is straightening out some of the longer distance routes. A classic example is the 130 route – which must be close to Auckland’s longest (particularly time-wise in how long it takes) as it travels between New Lynn and Takapuna: via Upper Harbour. You’d have to be pretty mad to catch it the whole way, but it provides a useful connection for people living in West Auckland but working around Albany, or in Takapuna (and the vice-versa of course). But it’s a long-distance route (normally the kind of route I would suggest should be stopped, but in this case as there’s no train it provides an essential connection that isn’t duplicative) and therefore speed is of utmost importance.
But the route doesn’t take anywhere near a direct path. As you can see below (route highlighted in yellow), within west Auckland it meanders around many back streets, even in West Harbour it doesn’t shoot along Hobsonville Road like you’d expect of a long-haul bus service, it turns and twists its way through every little back street you can think of.
This means that the trip takes forever (and the scary thing is that this route was simplified relatively recently by ARTA, it was even more complicated before then!). You can see this in the timetable below: By comparison, a trip from Constellation Station to Henderson during off-peak times is estimated by Google Maps to take around 21 minutes. That same trip by bus, if we take the 2:22 service at Constellation Drive, will take an hour and a quarter to get there. That’s just complete and utter rubbish. Who is going to catch a bus that takes three and a half times longer to complete its trip than driving – only those who don’t own cars of course.
The strange thing is that parts of the route are pretty quick. It’s only 20 minutes on the bus from Takapuna to Greenhithe. The same trip takes 14 minutes by car, without any traffic problems – so the bus is pretty competitive. But then all those gains from the fast route through the North Shore are thrown away in West Auckland. From Greenhithe to Henderson – a 17 minute trip by car – takes an hour and five minute by bus! Heck you could probably almost walk from Greenhithe to Henderson in that length of time! This is because the route is so extremely higgledy-piggledy through the back streets of West Auckland. Shorten and straighten the route and you not only can provide the same level of frequency with far fewer buses (and hopefully you’d use the resources to boost frequency), you would also attract a massive number of new passengers because catching the bus would come close to competing against the car for travel time: instead of taking three and a half times as long.
There are countless further examples of crazy inefficiencies in Auckland’s bus network. Some are obviously necessary – to provide a basic level of accessibility and mobility for dependent bus users – though we must question whether it would be cheaper and better to look at providing for those trips by a more flexible, demand responsive, method of public transport. Rather than sending so many buses on such completely indirect and lengthy routes.
Maybe Len Brown should have a word to Auckland Transport and get them to fill up the remaining 48 projects to be completed in his “first 100 days” with bus improvements. There are certainly enough problems out there that need urgent fixing, and as Brian Rudman’s article notes – if you want to make public transport better for the greatest number of people in the quickest timeframes and for the least cost – you simply have to focus on the buses.
Here’s a great video from Streetfilms showing how Chicago enables people to track exactly where their bus is, using GPS technology.
We already have a very basic version of this in Auckland – in that you can check on the computer how long until the bus gets to your stop (along some routes), and at some stops you can see how many minutes away your bus really is on a sign. But the way in which this is presented and shared around into cafes, bookstores and so forth works really well I think.
Which reminds me, whenever I try to use the MAXX website on my mobile phone I get horrible problems with the autofill options in journey planner. Google Maps seems to work better, but is still overly complex. Do others who try to get PT information on their smartphones have the same problems?
There was an article in today’s Herald by Brian Rudman that not only refers to this blog, but also refers to one of my biggest annoyances when it comes to catching my regular bus: the extraordinary unreliability of the service when it comes to the length of time it takes to get from Customs Street up to Victoria Street.
The night of this brave statement, I arrived at my bus stop to find a grumpy crowd of regulars seething about having waited more than 20 minutes for a Link or an 004/005 bus to take them home.
Both services were supposedly running a bus every 10 minutes at that time of night.
The next evening, a bus in North Star livery turned up. Climbing aboard, we were greeted by that damp public urinal smell that makes one nervous about sitting down…
…My route must be the shortest and simplest in the book. Up Hobson St from the bottom of town, right into Victoria St East, then straight ahead up College Hill to Herne Bay.
Yet the combined expertise of NZ Bus and assorted local body agencies has, from time immemorial, been unable to provide a regular, reliable timetabled service.
What ordeals customers on more complicated and outlying routes must face I dread to imagine.
Brian and I happen to catch the same bus route, and on some occasions the same bus. Usually he catches it from outside the TVNZ building on Victoria Street, while I sometimes wander up there or sometimes wander down to the Customs Street stop (it generally depends on whether I’m in a hurry and whether I have the energy to climb up Victoria Street). The 004/005 bus almost always leaves Customs Street on time in the evening, but while on some days it zips up Hobson Street quickly, on other days it gets stuck in traffic and can take up to 20 minutes to make the few hundred metre journey from Customs Street to Victoria Street.
There’s one simple reason for the massive variety: Hobson Street does not have bus lanes. Sometimes the traffic from the motorway onramps at the top of Hobson Street tails all the way down to the bottom of the street – the bus gets stuck in that and we’re pretty much stuffed. But what makes the whole process utterly infuriating is that parallel to Hobson Street is Albert Street – and Albert Street has bus lanes! You could easily shift the outbound service to Albert Street – and as there are no bus stops on Hobson Street nobody would be inconvenienced. Furthermore, you could put a bus stop on Albert Street (right outside the NZ Herald building there’s one – which would make Mr Rudman very happy indeed) – improving the accessibility of the 004/005 outbound for people working in the CBD. Something like what’s shown below: The blue line obviously indicates the new route the bus would take outbound. The red star shows the new bus stop location (the orange star shows existing locations). So let’s see:
- This would improve reliability as the bus would be able to use the Albert Street bus lane.
- This would improve accessibility through the new bus stop on Albert Street.
- This would improve travel speeds through the use of the bus lane.
- This would inconvenience nobody as there are no bus stops on Hobson Street.
Why hasn’t Auckland Transport done this already?
Rule number one for structuring a bus route network is surely that all routes with the same number take the same route- right? If you jump on bus J, then you expect it to take a particular route and for that route to always be the same – right? Well, with updates to the route structures for Dominion Road and Sandringham Road buses, it seems that “rule number one” has gone out the window. You can compare the old and new timetables on the MAXX website:
Sandringham Road current –> Sandringham Road (from Jan 30th)
Dominion Road current –> Dominion Road (from Feb 1st)
Many of the changes are good (or at least appear to be good). We see a great simplification of routes on Sandringham Road services in particular, with pointless services like the 241, 246 and 247 being discontinued. Generally the 248 and 249 services have also been merged into one – and the bizarre 202 bus has been turned into a school service. This is all very good and along similar lines to what I proposed a few months back – although doesn’t go quite as far in terms of simplification. Here’s the outer part of the new route map: This compares to the old map, which looked like this for the same area:
While these changes are good – I’m always a fan of eliminating unnecessary complexity from bus routes – it seems that actually all that’s changed is the numbering of the routes and in fact nothing has changed when it comes to where the buses will actually go. Many of the former 241, 246 and 247 services (though not all of them) have effectively been retained – just they’re now listed as 249 services and start their run closer to the city.
Talk about confusing: it means that if you live anywhere along the 249 route further out than Wesley you can’t actually just check the times of those services, you also need to make sure that it’s actually running and doesn’t start much closer to the city. Rule number one of bus routes out the window. Outbound, three 249 services (3.35, 3.55 and 4.15) terminate at Wesley: bad luck if you got on that bus and presumed it would take to you to Blockhouse Bay – or even to New Lynn as bizarrely some of the 249 services go all the way there.
The situation is actually even worse for Dominion Road services. At least in the case of Sandringham most of the outbound buses have avoided having different routes (aside from the three mentioned above). For Dominion Road, parts of the timetable are hugely confusing – some 267s in the morning peak start at Lynfield, some start at Valley Road, some go via the Flyover, some are Express services. Similarly, some 258s start or end their runs in Blockhouse Bay, others at May Road. Particularly for outbound services it seems that nearly half the 258s actually terminate at May Road rather than continuing to Blockhouse Bay. The section of timetable below shows how strange this is – with red dots next to 258 services that do go all the way to Blockhouse Bay, and green dots next to those that terminate at May Road:
It seems to me that in both the Sandringham Road and Dominion Road changes, Auckland Transport has done a half-arsed job to try and make it look like they’re simplifying the route network. Sure, there are fewer route numbers about which is a good thing, but it’s completely pointless to simplify the route numbers if you don’t actually also simplify the routes themselves! It’s just damn confusing for passengers if this 249 bus goes to Blockhouse Bay, the next one goes to Wesley and the one after that goes to New Lynn. Furthermore, it would be damn annoying to jump on a 258 bus expecting it to take you to Blockhouse Bay, but then be dumped off it at May Road and forced to catch a second connecting bus to finish your journey.
It’s also a bit odd that there was no consultation over these changes. I’m sure if Auckland Transport had consulted the public, the potential confusion of having different route workings for a route of the same number would have been pointed out. Hopefully we will see this sorted out, and hopefully Auckland Transport will learn and not make the same mistake in the future.
Following on from admins post about frequent network mapping yesterday a video has appeared online showing Aucklands public transport network throughout the day. It is actually something I have wanted to see for a long time.
A couple of things I noted from it are:
- It strikes me just how complex our PT network seems, there are lines going all over the place.
- Just how many PT vehicles are on the move at any one time.
- That you can really see is some of the spaghetti like routes that we have and you can see actually see some buses winding their way through residential roads at odd times of the day.
- The speed difference between buses on the busway compared to some of them on the isthmus i.e. you see a bus start out west at about 5am and wind its way through the streets but once it hits about Pt Chev it only crawls along.
- That some areas have big gaps in their levels service.
The video is absolutely amazing and I am please to see in the comments that Auckland Transport have picked up on it, I hope they can use something like this and build on it as it would be great to have it updated as things improve.
This is a great piece of work and a perfect example of what happens when things like transit data is more open, great work Chris
I have mentioned on many occasions in the past how Auckland’s bus route maps look like someone “threw spaghetti at a wall”. Let’s have a look at the eastern isthmus area as a classic example of this:
This map is actually completely useless – except for reinforcing the point that Auckland’s bus network is extremely complicated and difficult to understand. Perhaps one of the most annoying things about this map is that there’s no distinction between the quality of different services. Some routes like the 011, which operates just a few times a week, are shown in exactly the same way as other routes that operate far more frequently. What we really need to know, when planning how to get around the city by bus, is a simplified map that offers some sort of indicator of the service quality that you’ll get: particularly in terms of frequency.
The Seattle Transit Blog has put together exactly the type of map Auckland needs:
Auckland Transport really should create a map like this for Auckland. But in the meanwhile, are there any readers brave enough to dig through timetables, and with some skill in image editing software to put together something like this? It would be extremely useful.
Some interesting public transport announcements today by Len Brown – probably best encapsulated in this article from Stuff:
Aucklanders could soon be taking ferries to many different areas of the city, catching a train on the CBD rail loop or cycling to work under a plan by mayor Len Brown to more than double the patronage on public transport within 10 years.
Brown caught a train from Papatoetoe, in Auckland’s south, to Britomart, in the city centre, this morning in order to highlight the importance of public transport for his council.
He said he was determined for the patronage on public transport to double over the next 10 years.
”We want to see transit movements go from 63 million a year, as it stands this year, to 150 million a year in 10 years time.”
In 2006 ARTA set themselves a goal of having 100 million public transport trips by 2016. This was reliant on the earlier adoption of integrated ticketing and rail electrification than has happened subsequently – and therefore on current trends it seems unlikely that we will reach that level unless something pretty significant happens. Here’s what ARTA’s 2010 Annual Report had to say about PT patronage:
Under the available funding, ARTA’s target prior to them becoming Auckland Transport was around 80 million trips by 2016 – very much achievable and potentially a very conservative estimate: as both integrated ticketing and rail electrification will be completed by then.
But can we make 100 million trips by then? Can we reach Len Brown’s very ambitious target of 150 million trips by 2021? The article from Stuff quotes how Mayor Brown plans to get to this ambitious figure:
He said the doubling in public transport patronage would be achieved through integrated ticketing for the services, electrification of the rail network, the inner city rail loop – within five to seven years – and a ”major lift” in bus use, walking and cycling.
Brown said staff from his office and from Auckland Transport had started work on a study into how to encourage alternative means of transport. The study is expected to be completed in the next couple of months.
Doing a few sums, it seems to me that by 2021 – with a CBD Rail Tunnel completed – at best we might hope for 25 million rail trips a year. There are grand plans for ferries, so they might increase from around 4 million trips a year to at best 10 million trips a year. That means if we are to get anywhere near 150 million trips – the bulk of our increase will need to be on the buses. In my recent analysis of patronage trends in Auckland over the past decade, it was particularly noticeable how little bus patronage had increased: from 45 million in 2002 to 49 million in 2010 – not even keeping up with the rate of population growth.
So how are we going to more than double our current bus patronage in the space of a decade? In many ways, this is a more interesting question to answer than “how are we going to get patronage to 150 million by 2021?” It certainly won’t happen by keeping on doing “business as usual” with the bus system. So here are a few ideas:
- We must complete the Quality Transit Network. That means extensive bus lanes along all routes identified to form part of the QTN, frequencies that are no worse than a bus every 10 minutes, top quality bus shelters and fast boarding options.
- We must consider routes where upgrading to modern light-rail is appropriate (I include this in bus figures as it will be bus routes that are upgraded to light-rail rather than heavy-rail downgraded). Dominion Road and possibly Tamaki Drive seem like potentially useful areas to extend the Wynyard Quarter tram circuit that’s starting to emerge.
- We must simplify the overly complicated network of bus routes and provide a clear and legible system of routes that work in support of each other and the rail network – rather than competing against each other and the rail network. This needs to be based around making transfers as easy as possible, and on implementing a grid-style “network effect” on the isthmus. The possible core of this network is shown below:
- We must do something about getting better value for money out of our investment in subsidising public transport. It just seems bizarre that throughout the middle years of last decade the level of bus subsidy increased dramatically while patronage didn’t increase at all – and in fact decreased for a few years. There’s no quick solution to this problem – though I do think one potential solution could be the council buying out either a smaller bus company or one of NZ Bus’s brands. That way some of the more profitable routes could be used to subsidise some of the less profitable routes.
- We must sort out buses in the CBD. More bus trips should be to the local train station instead of long-haul services into town. More bus routes should pass through the CBD instead of terminating there. More bus routes should have sensible stop locations in the CBD – one area for North Shore buses, one area for those going west, one area for all those serving the isthmus and another area for south and east buses.
I do actually think 150m trips by 2021 is possible. Rail electrification will lead to a big jump in rail patronage (it always has overseas), but perhaps more importantly, integrated ticketing will make transfers between services far easier than they’ve ever been before (as long as Auckland Transport does it properly and has free transfers). It will hopefully become normal to catch a local bus to your train station, then jump on the train to work – doing the reverse on the way home. Or it will become normal to jump on a high-frequency cross-town QTN then switch to a separate radial route to end up where you need to go.
But perhaps most importantly, but 2021 I suspect petrol will be very very expensive. It pretty much hit $2 a litre today for 91 octane – in a time of great economic uncertainty and dampened demand. If/when the global economy really does fully recover, it’s hard not to see petrol becoming extremely expensive in the future. That’s going to price a lot of people out of there cars and onto the public transport system. The real question is, will the system be up to scratch when that happens?