Comments on: Petrol at its most expensive in 18 months

By: admin

admin — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 03:04:11 +0000

I disagree Kevyn. NZTA data showed that state highway traffic volumes in 2008 were well down on 2007 levels. In some months the difference was 10% compared to the previous year in some spots (like the harbour bridge). Higher prices DID make people drive less.

By: Kevyn

Kevyn — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 01:20:31 +0000

Sweden’s 1994 fuel tax hike made their pump prices equivalent to what we will be paying with oil at $200 barrel. It didn’t have the intended effect on traffic growth. In 1994 Sweden already had Europe’s highest rate of bicycle ownership and both of Sweden’s big cities had excellent PT systems. Those tax increases and the more progressive but equally large fuel tax increases in Britain in the 1990s and our experiences of $2+ a litre petrol have proved beyond reasonable doubt that the predominant response is to drive less car rather drive less.

It is much cheaper to convert engines to run on LPG or CNG than to convert to electric motors. However, for the most popular models on New Zealand’s roads it will probably be even cheaper to replace the alternator, starter and computer chip with mild-hybrid versions.

By: max

max — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 03:35:30 +0000

“There must be a good chance one or all of those projects will get stopped dead in the tracks- especially if they get done as PPPs.”

Well, at least Waterview is not being done as a PPP. Could you even stop a PPP? I mean why would the P(rivate) partner ever want to do that? Another black mark against them.

By: admin

admin — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 03:30:40 +0000

Good question though TopCat. If we get halfway through building those dinosaur motorways and oil’s $200 a barrell life will certainly be interesting.

Nick, you say that so sarcastically. Joyce etc. are counting on the electric car fairy you know!

By: Jeremy Harris

Jeremy Harris — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 02:14:57 +0000

@Topcat, anyone who says they can predict the oil price going forward (especially over the long term) is making things up, only a trend of up will be possible…

For example the USDOT report stated it will be possible to see prices swing between US $50 – $300 a barrell…

The formerly conservative IEA’s director recently said we need to learn to leave oil before it leaves us and the CEO of Shell has recently confirmed we are at the end of cheap oil, Joyce will go down as one of NZ’s biggest fools…

By: Nick R

Nick R — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 00:36:31 +0000

Don’t worry TopCat, if there are any problems the Electric Car Fairy will come along and immediately convert the 3.8 millon vehicles in the nation’s vehicle fleet to electrics and change over all the support infrastructure and boost the electricity supply accordingly.

By: TopCat

TopCat — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 00:17:33 +0000

Just out of interest- what do you think fuel will cost by the time Waterview, Transmission Gully and Holiday Highway are opened? There must be a good chance one or all of those projects will get stopped dead in the tracks- especially if they get done as PPPs.

By: Jeremy Harris

Jeremy Harris — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 23:49:35 +0000

The hilarious thing is high oil prices actually increase demand in OPEC countries as they then have more money to spend and invest in growing their economies, i.e. increasing their energy use…

Also remember a recent USDOT report stated that a symptom of peak oil will be wild price variance, sadly masking the root cause, we could slip from recession to recovery to recession all the while the world’s government’s book slip further and further into the red… We need to delink GDP growth and energy growth and soon or the 1930s await…

Finally Jarbury I don’t think any price will deter Joyce he believes cars pay for themselves no matter what as he clearly stated in an editorial he got printed in the Herald about carbon pricing where he clearly stated cars will pay for themselves no matter what the carbon price, why should he think any differently about oil prices..?

By: Cameron Pitches

Cameron Pitches — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 20:22:04 +0000

Great post. A few points though… World Liquids Fuel Production is not the same thing as crude oil production. It includes things like natural gas liquids and other fuels that have no bearing on the price of petrol at the pump.

Also more critical than when the peak in global oil production occurs is the number of countries with sufficient production capacity to export oil. The world is divided in to oil importing nations and oil exporting nations. As time goes on, net oil exporting countries are flipping to become importers, creating an exponential effect on demand. Egypt and Argentina are the latest countries to flip to be oil importers. There are riots in Egypt right now because of diesel shortages, and Argentina is importing petrol for the first time in 30 years.

Looking further out, the biggest net exporter in the world is Saudi Arabia, and they look set to flip some time between 2020 and 2030, as their own internal demand for oil increases.

By: Nathan

Nathan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 19:47:27 +0000

Don’t forget that excise tax is going up (3¢?) along with the introduction of the ETScam levy (another 3¢?), plus any increase in GST (October?) on top of all of that.

I would hate to think that a regional tax would lumped on top of that (e.g. in Wellington for Transmission Gully), as the Govt would already be making a killing from the increased GST take (as they charge GST on the price inclusive of excise = a tax on a tax).