Comments on: Treasury’s Oil Price Predictions – Pathetic

By: anth

anth — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 04:08:46 +0000

At least they’ve stopped predicting that prices will go down

http://blog.greens.org.nz/2007/11/13/what-have-treasury-and-the-reserve-bank-been-up-to/

By: jarbury

jarbury — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 09:14:56 +0000

Interesting points Richard. I know that a significant proportion (around a quarter I think) of the money we spend on imports is on oil and cars. That’s a significant strain on the economy.

By: Richard

Richard — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 07:22:59 +0000

Two things, one small, one big

Although I agree with your conclusion that treasury oil price estimates are unreliable, I don’t think you should discredit them on the basis that they don’t predict short-term volatility. Predicting the general trend is the aim.

It seems to me that you rely quite heavily on “peak oil” to justify public transport investment. I don’t doubt that if/when peak oil comes then public transport is a big part of the solution but surely a case for public transport can be made without referring to peak oil or climate change. I think that some people (who control the money?) don’t give much weight to these arguments. For example: NZ doesn’t produce oil. It would be good for our balance of payments if we spent less on it. Public transport would allow us to do this without sacrificing people getting places. Have there been any studies that look at the ecomonic benefits of NZ spending less on oil?

By: jarbury

jarbury — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:37:17 +0000

Sydney and Melbourne have around the same population density as Auckland. Brisbane and Perth have significantly lower population densities than Auckland. However, all four cities have significantly better public transport systems than Auckland does – and significantly higher public transport patronage. So for intra-city travel I would say that Auckland is at least as vulnerable as the Australian cities, and perhaps more so.

Regarding inter-city travel – yeah Australia’s so massive that they’re definitely more vulnerable. Perth’s going to become one hell of an isolated city if air travel becomes unaffordable to most.

apl – I don’t think they do. Even the IEA is predicting peak oil within 5-6 years now. Not long ago they were saying oil wouldn’t peak for decades…. how things change huh?

By: George Darroch

George Darroch — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:05:28 +0000

Australia relies heavily on long distance trucking, and the great majority of people in Australian cities drive everywhere.

I also saw Australia become a lot larger as the price of oil rose. Suddenly Sydney wasn’t so close anymore, and people had to think hard about travel.

I don’t think Australia is better insulated.

By: apl

apl — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:52:37 +0000

Surely somebody in government must read the World Energy Outlook from the IEA?

By: jarbury

jarbury — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:20:00 +0000

Compared to Auckland, Australian cities have fantastic public transport systems. I imagine that would mean that we’re even more vulnerable.

By: apl

apl — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:09:53 +0000

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/5477
>> Kjell Aleklett, a physicist from Uppsala University in Sweden, says Australia’s relatively underdeveloped public transport system leaves the country more vulnerable to a downturn in energy production. “Australia is very sensitive to such developments,” Professor Aleklett told the Herald. “Much of your industry and transit is dependent on oil, and supplies will decline.” <<

What a fabulous moment to go build some (drum roll and lights please) "ROADS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE".