Ugh

Well it was definitely to be expected, but the election result was still disappointing and depressing. All the potential ways in which Labour could have at least made things close (picking up huge votes in South Auckland again, having New Zealand First crack 5%, having the Greens get up around 10% and so on) didn’t eventuate. I always knew that National were going to end up with more votes than Labour, but I didn’t quite expect the margin to be as big as it’s turned out to be. This means that National can form a government without needing the Maori Party – and therefore my big hope of that being hugely problematic and opening the door for Labour – has disappeared.

OK, let’s (try to) look for some positives first. The Greens did increase their vote from the last election and they’ll end up with two additional seats (possibly even three if the special votes go their way as they have a habit of doing). However, I think the Greens will be disappointed in many ways. A lot of polls had them up around 8 or 9%, so 6.5% is a bit disappointing. Maybe a lot of potential Greens voters switched to Labour at the last minute, or just didn’t bother voting at all. It’s hard to say, I guess maybe the polls were just out. Any more positives… ummm… nope.

The negatives are almost too numerous to mention. Labour lost the West Auckland vote to National – which is almost unbelievable. They lost every electorate outside Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin, except for Palmerston North. They lost Auckland Central, and electorate that National has NEVER won before. Act won five seats, which means that they’ll have a reasonable say in the next government – a scary thought if I’ve ever come across one. Winston Peters disappeared, which in some ways I guess is a positive as he annoys the hell out of me, but if New Zealand First had managed to get up to 5% Labour might have had a chance of forming a government.

Helen Clark stepped down as leader of the Labour Party, sad but I think definitely something that was expected to happen. The last thing I would want to see is her party turning against her, like what has happened to every leader of the National Party in my living memory. I’m pretty sure she is the longest serving leader of the Labour Party ever (since 1993!) and did a damn good job as Prime Minister. The fact that John Key had to drag National well into the political centre in order to defeat her at this election says an awful lot for the success of Helen as Prime Minister and also of the success of the Labour Party as our government throughout the past nine years. As much as Act, along with the right-wing branch of the National Party, would like to deny it, it surely seems like the neo-liberalism of the 1980s and 1990s is finally dead. In a way that is an enormous relief to me and to the whole country. Whilst I’m still gutted that Labour lost, it is a relief that I’m getting a National government that will hopefully not be too different to what I’ve enjoyed throughout the past nine years.

So where to from here I wonder? For National, they seem interested in forming a pretty big ‘super government’ involving everyone possible from Act to the Maori Party. I’m a bit sceptical about how this will work out, as they only really NEED the support of Act to govern. However, if some agreement with the Maori Party can be hammered out it would be useful for National to have an alternative option to Act when it comes to passing legislation. If the Maori Party, along with Peter Dunne, can pull National in the opposite way to how Act will be pulling them, then hopefully we won’t see too many extreme-right policies. For Labour, there is definitely going to be a time of change happening. Phil Goff and Annette King seem to be the most likely leadership team to replace Helen Clark and Michael Cullen. They’re not exactly “fresh-faced” in terms of their age and their political experience, but I think they’ll do and OK job. It will be hard for Labour to come back from this hammering, especially after losing their two best assets in Clark and Cullen. I strongly believe they will need to work with the Greens a lot more over the next three years to provide a good, united opposition and to hold National to the promises they have made in the past few months regarding issues such as asset sales, keeping Working for Families, keeping the emissions trading scheme and so forth. Regarding the Greens, I also think they’ll need to get closer to Labour and work hard to help Labour as well as themselves. Realistically, the Greens are only ever going to be part of a Labour government, so it’s certainly in their best interests to help them out.